Whither Trumponomics?

When I spoke at the Value Investment Summit 2017 to more than 1500 participants, I posed a few imponderables to them.

Will “Trump the Candidate” be “Trump the President”?

Campaign rhetorics are designed to win hearts and votes. They are rarely totally fulfilled by the winning candidate after moving into the White House.

Depending on priorities and reality checks, some of the promises that move crowds will soon be swept away. And political scapegoats and smoke screens will be found to take the blame and justify for the lack of or non action.

For example, by now, Trump should more than know that building the proposed wall between the USA and Mexico will be such a bigly task and requires such a yuuuge amount of resources that it’s almost an impossible task.

During my presentation, I also mentioned that President Trump may not have all the power to push through his agenda.

President Trump has to contend with many potential conflicts of interest and conflicting views in his leadership and administration team.

In addition, he has to muddle through potential conflicts between him and the electoral base, conflicts of views with and among members of his Cabinet, and conflicts of views between him and among members of the Senate and House of Representatives.

Case in point, despite President Trump’s confidence and the fact that the Republicans have a stronghold on both the Senate and House of Representatives, the proposed healthcare reform was backed down by his Republican Party.

What next? Trump’s economic agenda.

Will Trump’s government approve his expansionary fiscal policy? Pro-business policies? Deregulation of economic and business policies? Lowering of corporate tax? Import tariffs?

Expect a bumpy ride ahead. Be mindful that unpredictability is not an enemy. Uncertainty is not a foe.

Stay calm and beware of the twin investment terrors of fear and greed.

There are silver linings in every dark cloud, including sale of distressed and under-valued assets.

Focus on triple A-rated treasury bonds and blue-chip assets with sustainable fundamentals and support factors for growth. Pursue assets, the values of which will not be affected by softening of the economy and cyclical downturns.

Are the forces converging to become a perfect spring for investments?

Go4It!

I hope this message will find a place in your heart.

By the way, I have also recorded other reflections.

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